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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd